tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post1986113542826645535..comments2023-10-27T07:50:27.411+01:00Comments on Next Left: Nadine phones a friendTom Hampsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05917325958130851128noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-23462450256754500472009-10-27T14:01:19.762+00:002009-10-27T14:01:19.762+00:00I now think that this post may, in fact, be uninte...I now think that this post may, in fact, be unintentionally unfair to Nadine Dorries. <br /><br />For she has tweeted last night that <br /><br />" # So Jaquie S shouts 'not true' on A/Q when I said there were no MPs from AWS in the cabinet. I've waited all day 4 someone to put me right ...<br /><br /># But of course, they can't. What wasn't true was Jaquie Smith's porkie pie when she shouted 'not true'about 16 hours ago from web"<br /><br />It was not at all clear to me that Dorries knew the answer to her question, hence this post; but if she did already state at the weekend on Any Questions that there were no AWS women in the Cabinet, then that can be substantiated. (I had not heard Any Questions, so was unaware of this, was so responding to what her words seemed to mean).<br /><br />---<br /><br />I stand by the broader points, and I think Dorries is wrong on the substantive point which I was challenging, about AWS and non-AWS women MPs.<br /><br />1. It is not the case that "everyone knows" whether, say, Yvette Cooper was selected on an AWS or open selection in 1997. As Amanda Platell so clearly proved.<br /><br />I would estimate that there are not more than a half a dozen people in the country outside Parliament who would have the AWS/notAWS distinction in their heads if offered a list of say 20 1997 Labour women and asked to sort 10 in each category. (The six exceptions may be academics studying the issue; campaign officers at Fawcett; or selections officials at Labour HQ). <br /><br />I would be impressed if any of the political lobby could get 100% on that without looking up the list first. (I am sure I couldn't).<br /><br />I am also sceptical as to whether there would be many more than a dozen in Parliament (though some women MPs involved in Emily's List type campaigns may know).(In fact, Jacqui Smith not knowing - perhaps she thinks Cooper was AWS - rather undermines Dorries' opening "everyone knows" argument.<br /><br />2. I think my prediction that Nadine Dorries will make more of the lack of an AWS Cabinet Minister than the data justifies will be borne out too. But let's give her a chance.Sunder Katwalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06671411534003530927noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-60171154968966058272009-10-27T13:39:35.315+00:002009-10-27T13:39:35.315+00:00Tom,
Thanks for the post and link. Yes, that wou...Tom, <br /><br />Thanks for the post and link. Yes, that would be the right question. I am not sure whether that does exist. (Lury's study reports that Labour women overall did slightly better than the men in government jobs and promotion). The 1997 intake was almost two-thirds men; I imagine disaggregating the women would make it unlikely that this is because the AWS women did worse than men, while the non-AWS women much better than the non-AWS men, which would have to be the case if AWS had a negative impact while women did better than men.Sunder Katwalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06671411534003530927noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-20441104449112426232009-10-27T10:21:03.044+00:002009-10-27T10:21:03.044+00:00Mine was a short list a short list of one, a safe ...Mine was a short list a short list of one, a safe seat and here she is. She will fit in nice in your area. but sadly she does not fit in at all.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05186557603493331701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-89808524087345141262009-10-27T10:17:16.146+00:002009-10-27T10:17:16.146+00:00"a comparison of whether the promotion prospe..."a comparison of whether the promotion prospects of the 1997 women were different to those of the 1997 men"<br /><br />Wouldn't the better comparison be AWS women vs non-AWS women? Otherwise any simple gender effect and any effect of the AWS process will confound one another.<br /><br />I don't know what that might show, but you have prompted me to compare the 2001 re-election prospects of the AWS women with those of the non-AWS women. I find <a href="http://viva-freemania.blogspot.com/2009/10/all-women-shortlists-lead-to-equally.html" rel="nofollow">no significant difference</a>.Tom Freemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02997295899017354602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-42500809630556856632009-10-27T00:19:50.938+00:002009-10-27T00:19:50.938+00:00Well spotted!Well spotted!Jim Jeppshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17410387006098326671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-72521813253258106542009-10-26T21:10:05.679+00:002009-10-26T21:10:05.679+00:00At the risk of over-mining this rich seam, let me ...At the risk of over-mining this rich seam, let me make a prediction. <br /><br />When Nadine Dorries gets the answer to her question, she may well trumpet it as proof that women elected on AWS are not taken seriously, compared to other MPs. But I predict she will base this on "number of AWS women in cabinet" and not what might be needed: a comparison of whether the promotion prospects of the 1997 women were different to those of the 1997 men.<br /><br />Fortunately, such a study exists. Indeed Rebecca Lury's findings from her phD were reported in a Fabian Review article last Christmas. But it is not yet our move, so let us hold on with what those findings were at this stage, so that Nadine has every chance to develop her own argument.<br /><br />(That approach is necessary since there have been only two elections - 97 and 05 - where AWS was usef; and we would not expect the number of MPs (male or female) from those cohorts in the Cabinet to be much higher than it is. (This post from last March, looking at <a href="http://www.nextleft.org/2009/03/what-trevors-term-limits-would-do-to.html" rel="nofollow">what 4-term term limits would mean</a> for Parliamentary careers of current Cabinet, gives a snapshot - pre the last reshuffle - of the range of 'years first elected' in a Cabinet).Sunder Katwalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06671411534003530927noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-3261894867985006392009-10-26T16:07:45.980+00:002009-10-26T16:07:45.980+00:00the old thing about never letting facts get in the...the old thing about never letting facts get in the way of a good conservative rant comes to mindBearded Socialisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17177734192167273165noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-28048248061568351482009-10-26T16:05:15.638+00:002009-10-26T16:05:15.638+00:00She wants to know, she doesnt want to work it out....She wants to know, she doesnt want to work it out.............Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08810599928765693534noreply@blogger.com