tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post2600537504312286882..comments2023-10-27T07:50:27.411+01:00Comments on Next Left: IDS: Thatcher would have lost in 1983 without HealeyTom Hampsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05917325958130851128noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-70385977923201250852009-03-23T19:35:00.000+00:002009-03-23T19:35:00.000+00:00GreggThe Tories were elected after the Winter of D...<B>Gregg</B><BR/>The Tories were elected after the Winter of Discontent that followed Callaghan's wage restraint. But why do you blame Callaghan for this rather than the unions? Surely Callaghan was right to <I>try</I> to prevent inflation from taking off again? Or do you prefer Thatcher's method of controlling inflation that destroyed 2 million jobs and other problems noted above?<BR/> <BR/>Nor can I understand why Healey and the IMF are blamed. I thought Labour was rejected because it could not control the unions and few expected the Tories to create so much grief.<BR/> <BR/>By the way, the current account deficit was 5% of GDP when Thatcher left; bigger than now. Funding it privately avoided hated IMF strings but I expect this to end badly when international financiers stop funding it and try to withdraw their funds. In autumn of 2005 the IMF called the US economy an accident waiting to happen for this reason!George CA Talbothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18239480745401938873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-21878314641781799822009-03-22T22:03:00.000+00:002009-03-22T22:03:00.000+00:00IDS is absolutely right that much of the credit fo...IDS is absolutely right that much of the credit for Thatcherism should go to Healey - but not because of the IMF loan itself, rather because Healey (and Callaghan) kept on enforcing wage restraint long after the loan had been repaid. That lead both to the Winter of Discontent and to many of Labour's traditional supporters voting Tory in 1979 out of spite against the government. Without that, Thatcher wouldn't have won in 1979 (and wouldn't have been leading the Tories by 1983).Gregghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06317276919466733442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-17879719383618012392009-03-22T09:04:00.000+00:002009-03-22T09:04:00.000+00:00George,Thanks for your message and for joining the...George,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for your message and for joining the discussion. However, I didn't say any such thing: I was merely reporting on IDS' comments. My passing comment was simply to say that I was unconvinced that the 1976 IMF crisis decided the result of the 1983 election. I wasn't commenting (positively or otherwise) on Thacher's economic record or legacy, which was your reading.<BR/><BR/>I have just recently writing a long essay about the consequences of Thatcherism for a journal issue on the 30th anniversary of 1979 which the ippr are to publish next month, at which point you will be welcome to debate and indeed take issue with my own views on her economic and political legacy.Sunder Katwalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06671411534003530927noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-48409102122974786662009-03-21T23:46:00.000+00:002009-03-21T23:46:00.000+00:00Thatcher’s won in 1983 because Britain won the Fal...Thatcher’s won in 1983 because Britain won the Falklands war, because UK inflation was curbed and because of Michael Foot’s manifesto. So why does Sunder Katwala accept Tory propaganda that Thatcher fixed the economy? With deflationary fiscal and monetary policy, she brought inflation down but destroyed 2 million jobs. Nothing new there! Then she tried to get unemployment down with an expansionary monetary policy. But as it came down, inflation took off! John Major restored low inflation and falling unemployment by combining another monetary deflation with an expansionary monetary policy that doubled the national debt, as Reagan had done. But unemployment touched 3 million. Hardly a success for Thatcherism!<BR/>None of this fixed the economy. But Thatcher did break the unions. This helped managers manage but destroyed the power needed to hold real wages up. Callaghan tried to tame the unions but was broken by them. The current global crisis results from believing borrowing could sustainably restore the demand lost through low real wages.<BR/>Fixing this is especially hard because of free trade and free capital. No UK Party has advanced realistic proposals for a global economic system for the 21st century. Hence the enthusiasm for massive borrowing! Obama’s rhetoric implies he will but borrowing foreign money to pay people to work on social programs does not create a sustainable economy.George CA Talbothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18239480745401938873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-17426712845006939212009-03-21T23:25:00.000+00:002009-03-21T23:25:00.000+00:00This comment has been removed by the author.George CA Talbothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18239480745401938873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-51575299181145001282009-03-21T12:33:00.000+00:002009-03-21T12:33:00.000+00:00Craig, I think what he's saying is that going cap ...Craig, I think what he's saying is that going cap in hand to the IMF is politically disastrous. If Thatcher had had to do it, with the country in recession for much of her first term, it would have been incredibly difficult for her to win the 1983 election.<BR/><BR/>Thankfully the combination of the Falklands War (which was a major boost for her in the polls) and Labour's suicide note manifesto meant she stayed in office with a mandate to begin to reform the country.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16215346613300549732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-16124371480577429842009-03-21T12:01:00.000+00:002009-03-21T12:01:00.000+00:00Isn't he just saying that the country would have b...Isn't he just saying that the country would have been in an even bigger mess if it weren't for Healey? All Governments have to use the building blocks of past Governments to some extent and they also inherit the problems too.<BR/><BR/>None of this negates the fact that Margaret Thatcher's government did most of the work in turning this country around. Plus I feel IDS is being overly generous in saying that Mrs T would have lost in 1983 otherwise. I think the whole project would have just taken a bit longer, but with a larger majority (as without Healey sure the Labour Govt would have collapsed to a landslide in 1979?).<BR/><BR/>With a larger majority and still likely fighting Michael Foot in a General Election she would have one just as easily. But the beauty of Counterfactuals is that we will never know.Craig Rimmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00250550759526380306noreply@blogger.com