tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post5860285209065496851..comments2023-10-27T07:50:27.411+01:00Comments on Next Left: Could it just have been YouGov wot lost it for David Miliband?Tom Hampsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05917325958130851128noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-61204941426275183702010-09-26T11:18:34.465+01:002010-09-26T11:18:34.465+01:00Half a dozen careerist MPs?Half a dozen careerist MPs?Guido Fawkeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15091277669318213298noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-53720738402595113092010-09-25T22:48:03.409+01:002010-09-25T22:48:03.409+01:00MPs who vote in the final round are worth 33.33/26...MPs who vote in the final round are worth 33.33/262 so about 0.127% of the electoral college.<br /><br />The final gap is 1.3% which is just over 10 MPs. <br /><br />So I make that that if you could switch just 6 from one camp to the other, that would swing 0.76% and so give the college to David M by a millimetre. 7 would give you a swing of 0.9% (so you'd be at 50.25 vs 49.75).<br /><br />(if abstentions more complicated, as have to reweight everyone)Sunder Katwalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06671411534003530927noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-23057656036233497532010-09-25T22:01:24.431+01:002010-09-25T22:01:24.431+01:00I think there might be something in your hypothesi...I think there might be something in your hypothesis, I changed my bets on the back of the YouGov poll, if MPs are rational they might decide their self-interest career-wise is in being seen to back the winner.<br /><br />Am I right in thinking that 7 MPs changing their vote would have swung it?Guido Fawkeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15091277669318213298noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7985429043801017839.post-31106175954047537542010-09-25T22:00:42.541+01:002010-09-25T22:00:42.541+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Guido Fawkeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15091277669318213298noreply@blogger.com