Thursday, 14 May 2009

Terrible Labour polling; Tory Euro wobble

The Sun's YouGov poll tomorrow has separate General Election and European Election polls.

While both are terrible for Labour, the differences between them are very striking.

The general election polling is good for the Conservatives, while a historic low for Labour.

Conservatives: 41% (-2)
Labour: 22% (-5)
LibDem: 19% (+1)
Others: 18%

But the European election polling is even more turbulent. It also raises the spectre that Labour could even finish in 4th place in June but also suggests that Douglas Hogg's moat and/or Norman Tebbit's call for abstentions may be resonating. The changes are against a poll just a week before.

Conservatives: 28% (-9)
Labour: 19% (-3)
Ukip: 19% (+12)
LibDem: ?
BNP 4% (-)
Green: ?
(Source: PoliticsHome and UK polling report. I will add the LibDem and Green shares once available).

UPDATE: PoliticalBetting has the Sun graphic with different figures to those being reported by PoliticsHome last night, and Ukip on 15% rather than 19%, up 8 rather than 12 points in the week.
Conservatives: 28%
Labour: 19%
LibDem: 19%
Ukip: 15%
Green: 6%
SNP/PC: 4%
BNP 3% (-1)
Other 1%

European elections are often unpredictable - with the Green surge to 15% in 1989 and Ukip's surge last time - and in current circumstances, anything might be possible.

Pollsters do not think they have any chance of predicting how the BNP will do. Partly, it is whether voters will admit to planning to vote BNP but it is also that the gap between no seats and four, five or six seats could be not very large. The poll suggests that anti-BNP campaigning remains important but there are dangers about the media - as well as politicians - talking up the BNP threat a great deal, and perhaps more than is merited.

Personally, in current circumstances, I would be fairly relieved to see the more respectable minor parties - especially the Greens, but also non-racist right-wing anti-politics parties like Ukip or Libertas (however much I disagree with them) doing well in a "protest election" if it meant the BNP did not surge.

3 comments:

badconscience said...

"Personally, in current circumstances, I would be fairly relieved to see the more respectable minor parties - especially the Greens, but also non-racist right-wing anti-politics parties like Ukip or Libertas (however much I disagree with them) doing well in a "protest election" if it meant the BNP did not surge. "

I echo the sentiment. Indeed, when out anti-BNP canvassing I'm quite prepared to tell people to vote UKIP.

Obviously, the nature of the elections means that every non-BNP vote is a direct anti-BNP vote

Calix said...

If we consider all that's gone in the back-drop of an unprecedented economic and banking collapse, the polling is hardly surprising.

What I hope most of all is that people are not simply turned off any political engagement. In other words, I wouldn't be so worried if people turned to smaller parties as if the turn-out hit a record low, particularly for the general election. The danger is that we could turn into a country where everyone just shrugs their shoulders and mutters they are all corrupt, with turn-out on a steady downward curve. For instance, when I go to Bulgaria and meet young, educated people they just tell me there is no point invoting, even though I try to persuade ther other-wise. In that case, the democracy has little legitamacy and each party just lurches from one humiliation to another, and is far more concerned with damage limitation than policy. Then we really are all the losers.

Exit pursued by a bear said...

Perhaps in the long-run paradoxically democracy will not suffer from this shambles. Some dead wood will go and hopefully democracy will eventually come out of this stronger and leaner. Maybe people will look more closely at the record of their MP. If people are moved to vote AGAINST an MP at least they are participating in demopcracy. However, I'm afraid we won't see any benefits in the European elections.