Monday, 8 June 2009

The election inquest in numbers

The European election inquest will be all about opinions. I will update this post with the best pieces of factual analysis of the results: please do suggest resources and links, and let us know whether the explanations of politicians and parties stand up.

The national UK result and Europe-wide summary (BBC)

The Guardian summarises a miserable night for the centre-left across most of the EU.

John Curtice (The Independent): A disaster for Labour but hardly a Tory triumph

For Labour, the ignominy of coming third for the first time in a nationwide vote since 1922. Its share of the vote was easily it lowest-ever score in a nationwide vote since it first started fighting elections as an independent party in 1918. It only managed to top the poll in the deepest of deepest heartland, the North East of England.

True, most parties of government around Europe lost ground. But the drop in Labour's share of the vote as compared with the last general election looks set to be the one of the biggest suffered by any EU governing party

Yet it was far from a night of triumph for David Cameron. The Tory vote was no higher than in 2004, and well down on the 36 per cent William Hague managed in 1999. Hardly a performance to show that the Conservatives are on course for power ... Collective support for non-Westminster parties increased beyond the already remarkable one-third recorded in 2004 to no less than two-fifths.

Make Votes Count say that three out of four voters will be represented by an MP they voted for, ranging from 62% in the north-east to 87.7% in the south-east.

And they have a response to the criticism that PR let the BNP in

Systems don't elect candidates; it is the actions of parties and voters which do. What we have seen in the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber is a failure of the Labour party and the political class as a whole to engage with and mobilise people – at these elections, and more widely.


Newmania said...

The Conservative vote was not a good indicator of a GE vote because it had no consequences . Very few UKIP voters would risk a term of Brown.
The same is not true of the Labour Party who have no UKIP and in any case are down to the core.
One thing this showed was how well our FPTP system works and how silly he results can be when you have play votes . PR is seen as a waste of time.
Additionally overall support for the EU was shown to be non existent in this country and voting on Eurpean issues a non starter.
In fact you are not right ,the left did badly all over Europe .

Robert said...

But Labour has to look at why it has suffered, is it Brown actually I do not think so, what is it then Policies, everyone I speak to say policies, and many in my area are worried over Welfare reforms, why because 43% of people are on JSA or some other forms of benefits.