Friday, 5 June 2009

National vote share has echoes of 2004, say BBC

The BBC declares projected national shares for the local elections.

Labour: 23%
Conservatives: 38%
LibDems: 28%
other: 11%

This is a record low for Labour. The Conservatives are down 6% year on year, having hit 44% last time. The LibDems are up a couple of points.

"What is uncanny about this is the similarity to the 2004 local elections", says David Cowling of the BBC research unit, when the results were 26-38-29.John Curtice says that there is an uncanny similarity to 2004. The European election results may well be similar to 2004 too, though Labour may fall below 20% says Curtice.

Eric Pickles says that 38% would not usually deliver the targeted results the party is achieving in Derbyshire and Lancashire. They have worked out how to advance under the electoral system and get the votes where they need them. This is the Ashcroft strategy of hyper-targetting.

I suspect that Just like 2004 and the fall in the Conservative vote too is about to become a significant Labour party talking point. Though the 2005 recovery also depended on the unelectability of Michael Howard's Conservatives.

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