It is always a mug's game to try to predict a reshuffle - even one where much of it seems to be breaking 48 hours early. It is a sliding square puzzle where one wrong move throws the whole picture. And I am out of the Westminster loop on paternity leave, where leaving Sky News burbling quietly in the background while sleep deprived would be to risk insanity.
Still, I am unconvinced that what seems to be emerging as the conventional wisdom makes sense. So let me offer a wildcard suggestion, based on absolutely no inside information whatsoever.
LabourList last night showed that the betting odds for Home Secretary and Chancellor had Darling favourite for the former and Ed Balls for the latter. Most of the speculation has seemed to be about Alastair Darling at the Home Office, Ed Balls at the Treasury, and the question of whether Peter Mandelson might become Foreign Secretary (which might also mean David Miliband at the Home Office).
John Denham is probably best qualified to be Home Secretary, having been an authoritative and independent chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee.
But with so many women leaving either the government or the Commons, an all male line-up in the major offices of state could well seem a politically regressive move.
A peerage for JK Rowling to lead the child poverty charge is probably a long-shot.
So what are the other options?
Steve Richards notes in his column that Ed Balls has unmatched credentials to be Chancellor, while also being a highly controversial choice as Gordon Brown's closest political ally.
But I have not seen anybody mention one other young Cabinet minister who also knows economics and the Treasury inside out.
Step forward Britain's first woman Chancellor ... Yvette Cooper?